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Rizespor vs Uşak Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Rizespor
Rizespor
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Uşak Spor
Uşak Spor
11/25/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundÇaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rizespor84%
×Draw11%
Uşak Spor5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizespor
2.97
Uşak Spor
0.60

Rizespor creates 395% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rizespor
2.94
Uşak Spor
0.33

allows per match

Rizespor
0.88
Uşak Spor
3.00

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par
Uşak Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Uşak Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw
95%
Rizespor or Uşak Spor
89%
Draw or Uşak Spor
16%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+
65%
Uşak Spor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals
95%
Rizespor 2+ goals
79%
Rizespor 3+ goals
56%
Uşak Spor 1+ goals
45%
Uşak Spor 2+ goals
12%
Uşak Spor 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)
94%
Uşak Spor (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Uşak Spor away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 2.94 + Uşak Spor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.97

Uşak Spor attack 0.33 + Rizespor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Rizespor scores more
84%
level
11%
Uşak Spor scores more
5%

Rizespor at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rizespor vs Uşak Spor

Rizespor beat Uşak Spor 6-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.