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Rizespor vs Silivrispor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Rizespor
Rizespor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Silivrispor
Silivrispor
12/5/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundÇaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rizespor70%
×Draw17%
Silivrispor13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizespor
2.47
Silivrispor
0.94

Rizespor creates 163% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rizespor
2.94
Silivrispor
1.00

allows per match

Rizespor
0.88
Silivrispor
2.00

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par
Silivrispor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Silivrispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw
87%
Rizespor or Silivrispor
83%
Draw or Silivrispor
30%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+
48%
Silivrispor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals
91%
Rizespor 2+ goals
70%
Rizespor 3+ goals
44%
Silivrispor 1+ goals
61%
Silivrispor 2+ goals
24%
Silivrispor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)
85%
Silivrispor (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Silivrispor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 2.94 + Silivrispor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.47

Silivrispor attack 1.00 + Rizespor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Rizespor scores more
70%
level
17%
Silivrispor scores more
13%

Rizespor at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Rizespor 3–2 Silivrispor

Rizespor beat Silivrispor 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.