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Rizespor vs Kırklarelispor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Rizespor
Rizespor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kırklarelispor
Kırklarelispor
B. Keser 75', 16'
E. Arslan 29'
11/10/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundÇaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rizespor61%
×Draw21%
Kırklarelispor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizespor
2.08
Kırklarelispor
1.05

Rizespor creates 98% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rizespor
2.94
Kırklarelispor
1.23

allows per match

Rizespor
0.88
Kırklarelispor
1.23

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par
Kırklarelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Kırklarelispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw
82%
Rizespor or Kırklarelispor
79%
Draw or Kırklarelispor
39%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+
37%
Kırklarelispor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals
87%
Rizespor 2+ goals
61%
Rizespor 3+ goals
34%
Kırklarelispor 1+ goals
65%
Kırklarelispor 2+ goals
28%
Kırklarelispor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)
77%
Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Kırklarelispor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 2.94 + Kırklarelispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 2.08

Kırklarelispor attack 1.23 + Rizespor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rizespor scores more
61%
level
21%
Kırklarelispor scores more
18%

Rizespor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
B. Keser
29'
E. Arslan
57'
D. Hümmet← M. Şebelek
57'
A. Koç← B. Uzun
62'
H. Yeşilyurt← Ö. Sokullu
63'
F. Miya← E. Aydın
71'
Serhat Mermer
73'
F. Güneş← C. Alioğlu
73'
S. Vural← M. Çölgeçen
75'
B. Keser
76'
Y. Bolasie← S. Yılmaz
76'
E. Altıntaş← B. Keser
82'
Enes Islam Ilkin
83'
E. Karataş← C. Özdemir
83'
M. Yılmaz← E. Arslan

Statistics

RizesporKırklarelispor
Overview
9Corners2

Match Recap: Rizespor vs Kırklarelispor

Rizespor beat Kırklarelispor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 10, 2022.

Goals: B. Keser (16', 75'), E. Arslan (29').

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.