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Rizespor vs Eskişehirspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Rizespor
Rizespor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Eskişehirspor
Eskişehirspor
12/15/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundÇaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rizespor71%
×Draw17%
Eskişehirspor11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizespor
2.34
Eskişehirspor
0.81

Rizespor creates 189% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

Rizespor
2.94
Eskişehirspor
0.75

allows per match

Rizespor
0.88
Eskişehirspor
1.75

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par
Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Eskişehirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw
89%
Rizespor or Eskişehirspor
83%
Draw or Eskişehirspor
29%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+
48%
Eskişehirspor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals
90%
Rizespor 2+ goals
67%
Rizespor 3+ goals
41%
Eskişehirspor 1+ goals
56%
Eskişehirspor 2+ goals
19%
Eskişehirspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)
86%
Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Eskişehirspor away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 2.94 + Eskişehirspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.34

Eskişehirspor attack 0.75 + Rizespor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Rizespor scores more
71%
level
17%
Eskişehirspor scores more
11%

Rizespor at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rizespor vs Eskişehirspor

Rizespor beat Eskişehirspor 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 15, 2020.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.