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Rizespor vs Balıkesirspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Rizespor
Rizespor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Balıkesirspor
Balıkesirspor
12/4/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundÇaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rizespor64%
×Draw20%
Balıkesirspor16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizespor
2.13
Balıkesirspor
0.94

Rizespor creates 127% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rizespor
2.94
Balıkesirspor
1.00

allows per match

Rizespor
0.88
Balıkesirspor
1.33

finishing

Rizespor+0.00on par
Balıkesirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Balıkesirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw
84%
Rizespor or Balıkesirspor
80%
Draw or Balıkesirspor
36%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+
41%
Balıkesirspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals
88%
Rizespor 2+ goals
63%
Rizespor 3+ goals
35%
Balıkesirspor 1+ goals
61%
Balıkesirspor 2+ goals
24%
Balıkesirspor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)
80%
Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Balıkesirspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 2.94 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

Balıkesirspor attack 1.00 + Rizespor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Rizespor scores more
64%
level
20%
Balıkesirspor scores more
16%

Rizespor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Rizespor 0–2 Balıkesirspor

Balıkesirspor beat Rizespor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 4, 2018.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.