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Riverside vs Launceston City — Tasmania NPL 2026

Riverside
Riverside
FT
7 – 0
Launceston City
Launceston City
G. Krusa 6' (pen)
W. Humphrey 24' (pen)
3/15/2024Tasmania NPLTasmania NPL · Round 1Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Riverside23%
×Draw19%
Launceston City58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riverside
1.54
Launceston City
2.47

Launceston City creates 60% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 55 away

creates per match

Riverside
1.44
Launceston City
1.98

allows per match

Riverside
2.96
Launceston City
1.64

finishing

Riverside+0.00on par
Launceston City+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riverside ↓

Launceston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Riverside or draw
42%
Riverside or Launceston City
81%
Draw or Launceston City
77%

Winning margin

Riverside wins by 2+
10%
Launceston City wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Riverside 1+ goals
79%
Riverside 2+ goals
45%
Riverside 3+ goals
20%
Launceston City 1+ goals
91%
Launceston City 2+ goals
70%
Launceston City 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Riverside (draw refunded)
29%
Launceston City (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riverside at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.96 · 57 matches

Launceston City away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riverside attack 1.44 + Launceston City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Launceston City attack 1.98 + Riverside defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Riverside scores more
23%
level
19%
Launceston City scores more
58%

Launceston City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Launceston City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
G. KrusaPenalty
24'
W. HumphreyPenalty
28'
J. Agyekum

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Riverside 7 – 0 Launceston City

Riverside beat Launceston City 7-0 in Tasmania NPL on March 15, 2024.

Goals: G. Krusa (6' pen), W. Humphrey (24' pen).

The match was played at Windsor Park in Launceston.