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Launceston City vs Riverside — Tasmania NPL 2026

Launceston City
Launceston City
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Riverside
Riverside
M. Rawlings 74'
R. Fellows 43'
T. Swaby 36', 1'
A. Sands 17'
5/10/2025Tasmania NPLTasmania NPL · Round 7Prospect Park 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Launceston City59%
×Draw19%
Riverside21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Launceston City
2.44
Riverside
1.42

Launceston City creates 72% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

creates per match

Launceston City
2.04
Riverside
0.98

allows per match

Launceston City
1.86
Riverside
2.84

finishing

Launceston City+0.00on par
Riverside+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Launceston City ↓

Riverside →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Launceston City or draw
79%
Launceston City or Riverside
81%
Draw or Riverside
41%

Winning margin

Launceston City wins by 2+
38%
Riverside wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Launceston City 1+ goals
91%
Launceston City 2+ goals
70%
Launceston City 3+ goals
43%
Riverside 1+ goals
76%
Riverside 2+ goals
41%
Riverside 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Launceston City (draw refunded)
73%
Riverside (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Launceston City at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.86 · 57 matches

Riverside away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.84 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Launceston City attack 2.04 + Riverside defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.44

Riverside attack 0.98 + Launceston City defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Launceston City scores more
59%
level
19%
Riverside scores more
21%

Launceston City at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Launceston City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
T. Swaby
17'
A. Sands
36'
T. Swaby
43'
R. Fellows
74'
M. Rawlings

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania NPL: Launceston City 4–1 Riverside

Launceston City beat Riverside 4-1 in Tasmania NPL on May 10, 2025.

Goals: T. Swaby (1', 36'), A. Sands (17'), R. Fellows (43'), M. Rawlings (74').

The match was played at Prospect Park 1 in Launceston.