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Rivers United vs Wikki Tourist — NPFL 2019

Rivers United
Rivers United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
2/12/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 12Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Rivers United65%
×Draw24%
Wikki Tourist11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rivers United
1.58
Wikki Tourist
0.47

Rivers United creates 236% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 89 away

creates per match

Rivers United
1.68
Wikki Tourist
0.52

allows per match

Rivers United
0.42
Wikki Tourist
1.48

finishing

Rivers United+0.00on par
Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rivers United ↓

Wikki Tourist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rivers United or draw
89%
Rivers United or Wikki Tourist
76%
Draw or Wikki Tourist
35%

Winning margin

Rivers United wins by 2+
36%
Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rivers United 1+ goals
79%
Rivers United 2+ goals
47%
Rivers United 3+ goals
21%
Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
37%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
8%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Rivers United (draw refunded)
86%
Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rivers United at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.42 · 130 matches

Wikki Tourist away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.48 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rivers United attack 1.68 + Wikki Tourist defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.58

Wikki Tourist attack 0.52 + Rivers United defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rivers United scores more
65%
level
24%
Wikki Tourist scores more
11%

Rivers United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rivers United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rivers United vs Wikki Tourist

Rivers United beat Wikki Tourist 3-0 in NPFL on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium in Port Harcourt.