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Rivers United vs Katsina United — NPFL 2019

Rivers United
Rivers United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Katsina United
Katsina United
4/25/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 28Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Rivers United69%
×Draw23%
Katsina United8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rivers United
1.60
Katsina United
0.35

Rivers United creates 357% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 118 away

creates per match

Rivers United
1.68
Katsina United
0.29

allows per match

Rivers United
0.42
Katsina United
1.52

finishing

Rivers United+0.00on par
Katsina United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rivers United ↓

Katsina United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rivers United or draw
92%
Rivers United or Katsina United
77%
Draw or Katsina United
31%

Winning margin

Rivers United wins by 2+
39%
Katsina United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Rivers United 1+ goals
80%
Rivers United 2+ goals
47%
Rivers United 3+ goals
22%
Katsina United 1+ goals
30%
Katsina United 2+ goals
5%
Katsina United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Rivers United (draw refunded)
90%
Katsina United (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rivers United at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.42 · 130 matches

Katsina United away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.52 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rivers United attack 1.68 + Katsina United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

Katsina United attack 0.29 + Rivers United defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rivers United scores more
69%
level
23%
Katsina United scores more
8%

Rivers United at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rivers United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Rivers United 2–0 Katsina United

Rivers United beat Katsina United 2-0 in NPFL on April 25, 2024.

The match was played at Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium in Port Harcourt.