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River Plate vs Rosario Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

River Plate
River Plate
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
I. Subiabre 62'
L. Martinez Quarta 19'
S. Lopez 86'
S. Ferreira 9'
3/30/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 11Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

River Plate54%
×Draw26%
Rosario Central20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Plate
1.55
Rosario Central
0.84

River Plate creates 85% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

River Plate
1.96
Rosario Central
0.90

allows per match

River Plate
0.79
Rosario Central
1.15

finishing

River Plate-0.04on par
Rosario Central-0.19scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

River Plate or draw
80%
River Plate or Rosario Central
74%
Draw or Rosario Central
46%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+
28%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals
79%
River Plate 2+ goals
46%
River Plate 3+ goals
20%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
57%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
21%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)
73%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 12 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.96 + Rosario Central defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rosario Central attack 0.90 + River Plate defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

River Plate scores more
54%
level
26%
Rosario Central scores more
20%

River Plate at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
S. LopezRosario CentralRosario Central · F
7.9

Match Events

9'
S. Ferreira↳ I. Malcorra
19'
L. Martinez Quarta↳ M. Acuna
37'
F. Ibarra
44'
R. Aliendro
45+2'
J. Campaz
46'
I. Subiabre← Giuliano Galoppo
55'
L. Giaccone← G. Duarte
62'
I. Subiabre
64'
K. Castano← R. Aliendro
72'
M. Lovera← J. Campaz
72'
E. Copetti← S. Ferreira
74'
J. KomarGoal Disallowed - offside
77'
M. Meza
79'
M. Lanzini← M. Meza
80'
S. Driussi← Miguel Borja
84'
E. Gimenez← E. Coronel
85'
S. Lopez← I. Malcorra
86'
S. Lopez↳ E. Copetti

Possession

64%River

Shots

21River

Pass accuracy

54%River

Statistics

RiverRosario
Overview
64%Possession36%
21Total Shots6
4Corners4
17Fouls12
Shots
21Total Shots6
5On Target3
9Off Target2
7Blocked1
7Inside Box4
14Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
514Total Passes284
419Accurate Passes201
82%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Liga Profesional Argentina: River Plate 2–2 Rosario Central

River Plate and Rosario Central drew 2-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 30, 2025.

Goals: S. Ferreira (9'), L. Martinez Quarta (19'), I. Subiabre (62'), S. Lopez (86').

River Plate controlled possession (64%) and registered 21 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires.