River Plate 3–0 Excursionistas: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Excursionistas

2/8/2024

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Brigadier General Estanislao López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

River Plate72%

×Draw19%

Excursionistas9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchExcursionistas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.54

River Plate

2.03

Excursionistas

0.54

River Plate creates 276% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

2.73

creates per match

0.67

0.40

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

River Plate

2.73

Excursionistas

0.67

allows per match

River Plate

0.40

Excursionistas

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Plate+0.00on par

Excursionistas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Excursionistas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

91%

River Plate or Excursionistas

81%

Draw or Excursionistas

28%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

47%

Excursionistas wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

87%

River Plate 2+ goals

60%

River Plate 3+ goals

33%

Excursionistas 1+ goals

42%

Excursionistas 2+ goals

10%

Excursionistas 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

89%

Excursionistas (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Excursionistas away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 2.73 + Excursionistas defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.03

Excursionistas attack 0.67 + River Plate defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

River Plate scores more

72%

level

19%

Excursionistas scores more

9%

River Plate at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff