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River Ega vs Txantrea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

River Ega
River Ega
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Txantrea
Txantrea
2/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 15Estadio Andola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

River Ega36%
×Draw22%
Txantrea42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ega
1.70
Txantrea
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 109 away

creates per match

River Ega
1.80
Txantrea
1.28

allows per match

River Ega
2.40
Txantrea
1.60

finishing

River Ega+0.00on par
Txantrea+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ega ↓

Txantrea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

River Ega or draw
58%
River Ega or Txantrea
78%
Draw or Txantrea
64%

Winning margin

River Ega wins by 2+
18%
Txantrea wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

River Ega 1+ goals
82%
River Ega 2+ goals
51%
River Ega 3+ goals
24%
Txantrea 1+ goals
84%
Txantrea 2+ goals
55%
Txantrea 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

River Ega (draw refunded)
46%
Txantrea (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ega at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Txantrea away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ega attack 1.80 + Txantrea defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Txantrea attack 1.28 + River Ega defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

River Ega scores more
36%
level
22%
Txantrea scores more
42%

Txantrea at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Txantrea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: River Ega 2–1 Txantrea

River Ega beat Txantrea 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Andola in Andosilla.