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River Ega vs Subiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

River Ega
River Ega
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Subiza
Subiza
2/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 18Estadio Andola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

River Ega31%
×Draw23%
Subiza46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ega
1.50
Subiza
1.86

Subiza creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 93 away

creates per match

River Ega
1.80
Subiza
1.32

allows per match

River Ega
2.40
Subiza
1.20

finishing

River Ega+0.00on par
Subiza+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ega ↓

Subiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

River Ega or draw
54%
River Ega or Subiza
77%
Draw or Subiza
69%

Winning margin

River Ega wins by 2+
14%
Subiza wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

River Ega 1+ goals
78%
River Ega 2+ goals
44%
River Ega 3+ goals
19%
Subiza 1+ goals
84%
Subiza 2+ goals
55%
Subiza 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

River Ega (draw refunded)
40%
Subiza (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ega at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Subiza away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ega attack 1.80 + Subiza defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Subiza attack 1.32 + River Ega defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

River Ega scores more
31%
level
23%
Subiza scores more
46%

Subiza at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: River Ega 3–3 Subiza

River Ega and Subiza drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Andola in Andosilla.