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River Ega vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

River Ega
River Ega
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
4/11/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Andola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

River Ega46%
×Draw21%
Peña Azagresa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ega
2.12
Peña Azagresa
1.77

River Ega creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

River Ega
1.80
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

River Ega
2.40
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

River Ega+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ega ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

River Ega or draw
67%
River Ega or Peña Azagresa
79%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
54%

Winning margin

River Ega wins by 2+
27%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

River Ega 1+ goals
88%
River Ega 2+ goals
62%
River Ega 3+ goals
35%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
83%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
53%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

River Ega (draw refunded)
58%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ega at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ega attack 1.80 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.12

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + River Ega defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

River Ega scores more
46%
level
21%
Peña Azagresa scores more
33%

River Ega at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "River Ega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: River Ega 1–2 Peña Azagresa

Peña Azagresa beat River Ega 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Andola in Andosilla.