River Ega 2–1 Lourdes: Result & Stats

River Ega

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lourdes

5/2/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Andola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

River Ega44%

×Draw22%

Lourdes34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River EgaExpected goals in this matchLourdes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.63

River Ega

1.86

Lourdes

1.63

River Ega creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

1.80

creates per match

0.86

2.40

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

River Ega

1.80

Lourdes

0.86

allows per match

River Ega

2.40

Lourdes

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Ega+0.00on par

Lourdes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ega ↓

Lourdes →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

River Ega or draw

66%

River Ega or Lourdes

78%

Draw or Lourdes

56%

Winning margin

River Ega wins by 2+

24%

Lourdes wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

River Ega 1+ goals

84%

River Ega 2+ goals

55%

River Ega 3+ goals

28%

Lourdes 1+ goals

80%

Lourdes 2+ goals

48%

Lourdes 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

River Ega (draw refunded)

56%

Lourdes (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

River Ega at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Lourdes away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

River Ega attack 1.80 + Lourdes defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.86

Lourdes attack 0.86 + River Ega defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

River Ega scores more

44%

level

22%

Lourdes scores more

34%

River Ega at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "River Ega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff