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River Ega vs Beti Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

River Ega
River Ega
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Beti Onak
Beti Onak
11/28/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 6Estadio Andola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

River Ega37%
×Draw23%
Beti Onak41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ega
1.66
Beti Onak
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 109 away

creates per match

River Ega
1.80
Beti Onak
1.13

allows per match

River Ega
2.40
Beti Onak
1.51

finishing

River Ega+0.00on par
Beti Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ega ↓

Beti Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

River Ega or draw
59%
River Ega or Beti Onak
77%
Draw or Beti Onak
63%

Winning margin

River Ega wins by 2+
18%
Beti Onak wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

River Ega 1+ goals
81%
River Ega 2+ goals
49%
River Ega 3+ goals
23%
Beti Onak 1+ goals
83%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
52%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

River Ega (draw refunded)
47%
Beti Onak (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ega at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Beti Onak away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ega attack 1.80 + Beti Onak defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.66

Beti Onak attack 1.13 + River Ega defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

River Ega scores more
37%
level
23%
Beti Onak scores more
41%

Beti Onak at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beti Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: River Ega 1–4 Beti Onak

Beti Onak beat River Ega 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Andola in Andosilla.