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River Ebro vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

River Ebro
River Ebro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 31Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

River Ebro49%
×Draw25%
Peña Balsamaiso26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ebro
1.57
Peña Balsamaiso
1.06

River Ebro creates 48% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 66 away

creates per match

River Ebro
1.24
Peña Balsamaiso
0.97

allows per match

River Ebro
1.16
Peña Balsamaiso
1.91

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par
Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw
74%
River Ebro or Peña Balsamaiso
75%
Draw or Peña Balsamaiso
51%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+
25%
Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals
79%
River Ebro 2+ goals
46%
River Ebro 3+ goals
21%
Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
65%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
29%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)
66%
Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

River Ebro scores more
49%
level
25%
Peña Balsamaiso scores more
26%

River Ebro at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: River Ebro 0–2 Peña Balsamaiso

Peña Balsamaiso beat River Ebro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Rincón de Soto.