River Ebro 2–1 Oyonesa: Result & Stats

River Ebro

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oyonesa

1/19/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 18Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

River Ebro36%

×Draw27%

Oyonesa37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River EbroExpected goals in this matchOyonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.25

River Ebro

1.22

Oyonesa

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 109 away

1.24

creates per match

1.33

1.16

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

River Ebro

1.24

Oyonesa

1.33

allows per match

River Ebro

1.16

Oyonesa

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par

Oyonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Oyonesa →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw

63%

River Ebro or Oyonesa

73%

Draw or Oyonesa

64%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+

15%

Oyonesa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals

70%

River Ebro 2+ goals

34%

River Ebro 3+ goals

12%

Oyonesa 1+ goals

71%

Oyonesa 2+ goals

36%

Oyonesa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)

49%

Oyonesa (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Oyonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Oyonesa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Oyonesa attack 1.33 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

River Ebro scores more

36%

level

27%

Oyonesa scores more

37%

Oyonesa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff