River Ebro 0–1 Comillas: Result & Stats

River Ebro

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Comillas

10/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

River Ebro48%

×Draw25%

Comillas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River EbroExpected goals in this matchComillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.11

River Ebro

1.58

Comillas

1.11

River Ebro creates 42% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 96 away

1.24

creates per match

1.06

1.16

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

River Ebro

1.24

Comillas

1.06

allows per match

River Ebro

1.16

Comillas

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par

Comillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Comillas →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw

73%

River Ebro or Comillas

75%

Draw or Comillas

52%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+

25%

Comillas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals

79%

River Ebro 2+ goals

47%

River Ebro 3+ goals

21%

Comillas 1+ goals

67%

Comillas 2+ goals

30%

Comillas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)

64%

Comillas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Comillas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.93 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Comillas defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.58

Comillas attack 1.06 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

River Ebro scores more

48%

level

25%

Comillas scores more

27%

River Ebro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff