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River Ebro vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

River Ebro
River Ebro
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 22Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

River Ebro41%
×Draw26%
Casalarreina33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ebro
1.41
Casalarreina
1.25

River Ebro creates 13% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 91 away

creates per match

River Ebro
1.24
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

River Ebro
1.16
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw
67%
River Ebro or Casalarreina
74%
Draw or Casalarreina
59%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+
19%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals
76%
River Ebro 2+ goals
41%
River Ebro 3+ goals
17%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
71%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
36%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)
55%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

River Ebro scores more
41%
level
26%
Casalarreina scores more
33%

River Ebro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: River Ebro 3–1 Casalarreina

River Ebro beat Casalarreina 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Rincón de Soto.