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River Ebro vs Calahorra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

River Ebro
River Ebro
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Calahorra II
Calahorra II
3/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

River Ebro35%
×Draw27%
Calahorra II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ebro
1.23
Calahorra II
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 90 away

creates per match

River Ebro
1.24
Calahorra II
1.48

allows per match

River Ebro
1.16
Calahorra II
1.23

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par
Calahorra II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Calahorra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw
61%
River Ebro or Calahorra II
73%
Draw or Calahorra II
65%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+
15%
Calahorra II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals
71%
River Ebro 2+ goals
35%
River Ebro 3+ goals
13%
Calahorra II 1+ goals
73%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
38%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)
47%
Calahorra II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Calahorra II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Calahorra II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Calahorra II attack 1.48 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

River Ebro scores more
35%
level
27%
Calahorra II scores more
39%

Calahorra II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: River Ebro 2–4 Calahorra II

Calahorra II beat River Ebro 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Rincón de Soto.