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River Ebro vs Arnedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

River Ebro
River Ebro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arnedo
Arnedo
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 28Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

River Ebro33%
×Draw26%
Arnedo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ebro
1.22
Arnedo
1.40

Arnedo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 95 away

creates per match

River Ebro
1.24
Arnedo
1.63

allows per match

River Ebro
1.16
Arnedo
1.20

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par
Arnedo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Arnedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw
59%
River Ebro or Arnedo
74%
Draw or Arnedo
67%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+
14%
Arnedo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals
70%
River Ebro 2+ goals
34%
River Ebro 3+ goals
12%
Arnedo 1+ goals
75%
Arnedo 2+ goals
41%
Arnedo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)
44%
Arnedo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Arnedo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Arnedo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Arnedo attack 1.63 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

River Ebro scores more
33%
level
26%
Arnedo scores more
41%

Arnedo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: River Ebro vs Arnedo

River Ebro and Arnedo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Rincón de Soto.