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River Ebro vs Anguiano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

River Ebro
River Ebro
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Anguiano
Anguiano
3/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 25Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

River Ebro30%
×Draw26%
Anguiano43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ebro
1.13
Anguiano
1.41

Anguiano creates 25% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 91 away

creates per match

River Ebro
1.24
Anguiano
1.66

allows per match

River Ebro
1.16
Anguiano
1.01

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par
Anguiano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Anguiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw
57%
River Ebro or Anguiano
74%
Draw or Anguiano
70%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+
12%
Anguiano wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals
68%
River Ebro 2+ goals
31%
River Ebro 3+ goals
11%
Anguiano 1+ goals
76%
Anguiano 2+ goals
41%
Anguiano 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)
41%
Anguiano (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Anguiano away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.01 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Anguiano defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Anguiano attack 1.66 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

River Ebro scores more
30%
level
26%
Anguiano scores more
43%

Anguiano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: River Ebro 1–3 Anguiano

Anguiano beat River Ebro 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Rincón de Soto.