River AC 2–2 Porto Velho: Result & Stats | Serie D

River AC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Porto Velho

7/28/2024

Serie D · Round of 32Estádio Governador Alberto Tavares Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

River AC48%

×Draw24%

Porto Velho28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River ACExpected goals in this matchPorto Velho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.22

River AC

1.67

Porto Velho

1.22

River AC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

1.76

creates per match

1.39

1.05

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

River AC

1.76

Porto Velho

1.39

allows per match

River AC

1.05

Porto Velho

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River AC+0.00on par

Porto Velho+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River AC ↓

Porto Velho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

River AC or draw

72%

River AC or Porto Velho

76%

Draw or Porto Velho

52%

Winning margin

River AC wins by 2+

25%

Porto Velho wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

River AC 1+ goals

81%

River AC 2+ goals

50%

River AC 3+ goals

23%

Porto Velho 1+ goals

70%

Porto Velho 2+ goals

34%

Porto Velho 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

River AC (draw refunded)

63%

Porto Velho (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River AC at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

Porto Velho away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River AC attack 1.76 + Porto Velho defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Porto Velho attack 1.39 + River AC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

River AC scores more

48%

level

24%

Porto Velho scores more

28%

River AC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "River AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff