River AC 2–2 Floresta: Result & Stats | Serie D

River AC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Floresta

Roney 81'

Marquinho 23'

Alisson 22'

Paulo Vyctor 16'

6/2/2019

Serie D · Round 5Estádio Governador Alberto Tavares Silva (Teresina, Piauí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

River AC43%

×Draw26%

Floresta31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River ACExpected goals in this matchFloresta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.17

River AC

1.45

Floresta

1.17

River AC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.79

creates per match

1.22

1.11

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

River AC

1.79

Floresta

1.22

allows per match

River AC

1.11

Floresta

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River AC+0.00on par

Floresta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River AC ↓

Floresta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

River AC or draw

69%

River AC or Floresta

74%

Draw or Floresta

57%

Winning margin

River AC wins by 2+

21%

Floresta wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

River AC 1+ goals

77%

River AC 2+ goals

42%

River AC 3+ goals

18%

Floresta 1+ goals

69%

Floresta 2+ goals

33%

Floresta 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

River AC (draw refunded)

59%

Floresta (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River AC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Floresta away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River AC attack 1.79 + Floresta defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.45

Floresta attack 1.22 + River AC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

River AC scores more

43%

level

26%

Floresta scores more

31%

River AC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "River AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Paulo Vyctor

22'

Alisson

23'

Marquinho

46'

Kanu← Guilherme Traque

59'

Cris← Gustavo Henrique

70'

Flavio← Marquinho

76'

André Tavares← Paulo Vyctor

76'

Zé Aquiraz← Rene

81'

Roney

88'

Iago Barbosa← Carlos Eugenio

River

Floresta

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Marquinho

Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro

46'▲Kanu←▼Guilherme Traque

59'▲Cris←▼Gustavo Henrique

70'▲Flavio←▼Marquinho

River AC substitutes

KanuCrisFlavioAndersonBiroCassianoCrisPauloJulianoTote

76'▲André Tavares←▼Paulo Vyctor

76'▲Zé Aquiraz←▼Rene

88'▲Iago Barbosa←▼Carlos Eugenio

Floresta substitutes

TavaresAquirazBarbosaYtaloCássioEvertonVagner