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Ritzing vs Andau — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Ritzing
Ritzing
FT
5 – 0
Andau
Andau
10/14/2022Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 13Sonnenseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ritzing68%
×Draw17%
Andau15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ritzing
2.64
Andau
1.20

Ritzing creates 120% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ritzing
2.21
Andau
1.00

allows per match

Ritzing
1.40
Andau
3.07

finishing

Ritzing+0.00on par
Andau+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ritzing ↓

Andau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Ritzing or draw
85%
Ritzing or Andau
83%
Draw or Andau
32%

Winning margin

Ritzing wins by 2+
46%
Andau wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ritzing 1+ goals
93%
Ritzing 2+ goals
74%
Ritzing 3+ goals
48%
Andau 1+ goals
70%
Andau 2+ goals
34%
Andau 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ritzing (draw refunded)
81%
Andau (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ritzing at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.40 · 47 matches

Andau away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ritzing attack 2.21 + Andau defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.64

Andau attack 1.00 + Ritzing defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ritzing scores more
68%
level
17%
Andau scores more
15%

Ritzing at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ritzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Ritzing 5–0 Andau

Ritzing beat Andau 5-0 in Landesliga - Burgenland on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Sonnenseestadion in Ritzing.