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Rîşcani vs Speranța Drochia — Cupa 2020

Rîşcani
Rîşcani
FT
0 – 5
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
8/24/2021CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rîşcani12%
×Draw15%
Speranța Drochia73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rîşcani
1.08
Speranța Drochia
2.83

Speranța Drochia creates 162% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rîşcani
0.33
Speranța Drochia
2.33

allows per match

Rîşcani
3.33
Speranța Drochia
1.83

finishing

Rîşcani+0.00on par
Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rîşcani ↓

Speranța Drochia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Rîşcani or draw
27%
Rîşcani or Speranța Drochia
85%
Draw or Speranța Drochia
88%

Winning margin

Rîşcani wins by 2+
4%
Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Rîşcani 1+ goals
66%
Rîşcani 2+ goals
29%
Rîşcani 3+ goals
10%
Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
94%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
77%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Rîşcani (draw refunded)
14%
Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rîşcani at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Speranța Drochia away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rîşcani attack 0.33 + Speranța Drochia defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Speranța Drochia attack 2.33 + Rîşcani defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Rîşcani scores more
12%
level
15%
Speranța Drochia scores more
73%

Speranța Drochia at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Speranța Drochia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Rîşcani 0–5 Speranța Drochia

Speranța Drochia beat Rîşcani 5-0 in Cupa on August 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Rîşcani.