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RiPS vs JäPS II — Suomen Cup 2018

RiPS
RiPS
FT
1 – 3
JäPS II
JäPS II
3/8/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundEerikkilä halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

RiPS6%
×Draw10%
JäPS II84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RiPS
0.79
JäPS II
3.35

JäPS II creates 324% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

RiPS
0.33
JäPS II
3.38

allows per match

RiPS
3.33
JäPS II
1.25

finishing

RiPS+0.00on par
JäPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RiPS ↓

JäPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–311%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

RiPS or draw
16%
RiPS or JäPS II
90%
Draw or JäPS II
94%

Winning margin

RiPS wins by 2+
1%
JäPS II wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

RiPS 1+ goals
55%
RiPS 2+ goals
19%
RiPS 3+ goals
5%
JäPS II 1+ goals
96%
JäPS II 2+ goals
84%
JäPS II 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

RiPS (draw refunded)
6%
JäPS II (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RiPS at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

JäPS II away — creates 3.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RiPS attack 0.33 + JäPS II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.79

JäPS II attack 3.38 + RiPS defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

RiPS scores more
6%
level
10%
JäPS II scores more
84%

JäPS II at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "JäPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RiPS 1 – 3 JäPS II

JäPS II beat RiPS 3-1 in Suomen Cup on March 8, 2023.

The match was played at Eerikkilä halli in Eerikkilä.