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RiPS vs FC jazz — Suomen Cup 2018

RiPS
RiPS
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC jazz
FC jazz
5/13/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundRiihimäki Pallokenttä Nurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

RiPS2%
×Draw8%
FC jazz89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RiPS
0.33
FC jazz
3.00

FC jazz creates 809% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

RiPS
0.33
FC jazz
2.67

allows per match

RiPS
3.33
FC jazz
0.33

finishing

RiPS+0.00on par
FC jazz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RiPS ↓

FC jazz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–217%
0–317%
0–412%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (17%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

RiPS or draw
11%
RiPS or FC jazz
92%
Draw or FC jazz
98%

Winning margin

RiPS wins by 2+
0%
FC jazz wins by 2+
72%

Team goals

RiPS 1+ goals
28%
RiPS 2+ goals
4%
RiPS 3+ goals
0%
FC jazz 1+ goals
95%
FC jazz 2+ goals
79%
FC jazz 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

RiPS (draw refunded)
2%
FC jazz (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RiPS at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

FC jazz away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RiPS attack 0.33 + FC jazz defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

FC jazz attack 2.67 + RiPS defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

RiPS scores more
2%
level
8%
FC jazz scores more
89%

FC jazz at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "FC jazz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RiPS 0 – 2 FC jazz

FC jazz beat RiPS 2-0 in Suomen Cup on May 13, 2025.

The match was played at Riihimäki Pallokenttä Nurmi in Riihimäki.