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Ripensia Timisoara vs Uta Arad — Liga II 2018

Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
3/2/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 23Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara34%
×Draw27%
Uta Arad40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ripensia Timisoara
1.21
Uta Arad
1.34

Uta Arad creates 11% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.09
Uta Arad
1.45

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.24
Uta Arad
1.33

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw
60%
Ripensia Timisoara or Uta Arad
73%
Draw or Uta Arad
66%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
14%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
70%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
34%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
12%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
74%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
39%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
46%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Uta Arad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Uta Arad attack 1.45 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more
34%
level
27%
Uta Arad scores more
40%

Uta Arad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Ripensia Timisoara 1–0 Uta Arad

Ripensia Timisoara beat Uta Arad 1-0 in Liga II on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara).