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Ripensia Timisoara vs Unirea Dej — Liga II 2018

Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
2/25/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Electrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara37%
×Draw29%
Unirea Dej34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ripensia Timisoara
1.11
Unirea Dej
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.09
Unirea Dej
0.89

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.24
Unirea Dej
1.13

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par
Unirea Dej+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Unirea Dej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw
66%
Ripensia Timisoara or Unirea Dej
71%
Draw or Unirea Dej
63%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
15%
Unirea Dej wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
67%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
30%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
10%
Unirea Dej 1+ goals
65%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
29%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
52%
Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Unirea Dej away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Unirea Dej defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Unirea Dej attack 0.89 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more
37%
level
29%
Unirea Dej scores more
34%

Ripensia Timisoara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ripensia Timisoara vs Unirea Dej

Unirea Dej beat Ripensia Timisoara 2-1 in Liga II on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Electrica in Timişoara.