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Ripensia Timisoara vs Rapid — Liga II 2018

Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
CANC
08:00
Rapid
Rapid
5/2/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara33%
×Draw27%
Rapid40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ripensia Timisoara
1.17
Rapid
1.31

Rapid creates 12% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 29 away

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.09
Rapid
1.38

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.24
Rapid
1.24

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw
60%
Ripensia Timisoara or Rapid
73%
Draw or Rapid
67%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
14%
Rapid wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
69%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
33%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
11%
Rapid 1+ goals
73%
Rapid 2+ goals
38%
Rapid 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
45%
Rapid (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Rapid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rapid attack 1.38 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more
33%
level
27%
Rapid scores more
40%

Rapid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ripensia Timisoara host Rapid

May 2, 2020: Ripensia Timisoara take on Rapid in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.