Ripensia Timisoara 0–1 Oţelul: Result & Stats

Ripensia Timisoara

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oţelul

11/27/2022

Liga II · Round 15Stadionul Electrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara38%

×Draw31%

Oţelul31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ripensia TimisoaraExpected goals in this matchOţelul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.91

Ripensia Timisoara

1.04

Oţelul

0.91

Ripensia Timisoara creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 14 away

1.09

creates per match

0.57

1.24

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.09

Oţelul

0.57

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.24

Oţelul

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Oţelul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw

69%

Ripensia Timisoara or Oţelul

69%

Draw or Oţelul

62%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

15%

Oţelul wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

65%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

28%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

9%

Oţelul 1+ goals

60%

Oţelul 2+ goals

23%

Oţelul 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

55%

Oţelul (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Oţelul away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Oţelul defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Oţelul attack 0.57 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

38%

level

31%

Oţelul scores more

31%

Ripensia Timisoara at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff