Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ripensia Timisoara vs FC Clinceni — Liga II 2018

Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
9/2/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 5Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara24%
×Draw26%
FC Clinceni50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ripensia Timisoara
0.94
FC Clinceni
1.49

FC Clinceni creates 59% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.09
FC Clinceni
1.74

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.24
FC Clinceni
0.79

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw
50%
Ripensia Timisoara or FC Clinceni
74%
Draw or FC Clinceni
76%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
8%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
61%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
24%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
7%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
77%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
44%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
32%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + FC Clinceni defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.94

FC Clinceni attack 1.74 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more
24%
level
26%
FC Clinceni scores more
50%

FC Clinceni at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Ripensia Timisoara 0–3 FC Clinceni

FC Clinceni beat Ripensia Timisoara 3-0 in Liga II on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara).