Ripensia Timisoara 2–1 FC Astra Giurgiu

Ripensia Timisoara

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Astra Giurgiu

9/11/2021

Liga II · Round 6Stadionul Electrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara51%

×Draw24%

FC Astra Giurgiu25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ripensia TimisoaraExpected goals in this matchFC Astra Giurgiu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.08

Ripensia Timisoara

1.67

FC Astra Giurgiu

1.08

Ripensia Timisoara creates 55% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 12 away

1.09

creates per match

0.92

1.24

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.09

FC Astra Giurgiu

0.92

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.24

FC Astra Giurgiu

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw

75%

Ripensia Timisoara or FC Astra Giurgiu

76%

Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu

49%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

27%

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

81%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

50%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

23%

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals

66%

FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals

29%

FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

67%

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 0.92 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

51%

level

24%

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more

25%

Ripensia Timisoara at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff