Ripensia Timisoara 2–0 Dacia Unirea Braila

Ripensia Timisoara

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dacia Unirea Braila

12/1/2018

Liga II · Round 20Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara73%

×Draw16%

Dacia Unirea Braila11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ripensia TimisoaraExpected goals in this matchDacia Unirea Braila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

0.96

Ripensia Timisoara

2.65

Dacia Unirea Braila

0.96

Ripensia Timisoara creates 176% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 19 away

1.09

creates per match

0.68

1.24

allows per match

4.21

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.09

Dacia Unirea Braila

0.68

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara

1.24

Dacia Unirea Braila

4.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw

89%

Ripensia Timisoara or Dacia Unirea Braila

84%

Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila

27%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

51%

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

93%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

74%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

48%

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals

62%

Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals

25%

Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

86%

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 2.65

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

73%

level

16%

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more

11%

Ripensia Timisoara at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff