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Ripensia Timisoara vs CSM Reşiţa — Liga II 2018

Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
CANC
08:00
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
5/23/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara38%
×Draw27%
CSM Reşiţa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ripensia Timisoara
1.28
CSM Reşiţa
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 64 away

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.09
CSM Reşiţa
1.22

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.24
CSM Reşiţa
1.47

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par
CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

CSM Reşiţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw
65%
Ripensia Timisoara or CSM Reşiţa
73%
Draw or CSM Reşiţa
62%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
17%
CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
72%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
37%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
14%
CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
71%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
35%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
52%
CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

CSM Reşiţa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.22 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more
38%
level
27%
CSM Reşiţa scores more
35%

Ripensia Timisoara at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ripensia Timisoara host CSM Reşiţa

May 23, 2020: Ripensia Timisoara take on CSM Reşiţa in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.