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Ripensia Timisoara vs Concordia — Liga II 2018

Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Concordia
Concordia
3/18/2023Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 1Stadionul Electrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara36%
×Draw28%
Concordia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ripensia Timisoara
1.18
Concordia
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 89 away

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.09
Concordia
1.09

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.24
Concordia
1.27

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par
Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Concordia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw
64%
Ripensia Timisoara or Concordia
72%
Draw or Concordia
64%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
15%
Concordia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
69%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
33%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
12%
Concordia 1+ goals
69%
Concordia 2+ goals
33%
Concordia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
50%
Concordia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Concordia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Concordia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Concordia attack 1.09 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more
36%
level
28%
Concordia scores more
36%

Ripensia Timisoara at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Ripensia Timisoara 1–2 Concordia

Concordia beat Ripensia Timisoara 2-1 in Liga II on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Electrica in Timişoara.