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Riopretano vs America SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Riopretano
Riopretano
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
America SP
America SP
4/26/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Riopretano27%
×Draw32%
America SP40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riopretano
0.80
America SP
1.04

America SP creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Riopretano
0.60
America SP
1.29

allows per match

Riopretano
0.80
America SP
1.00

finishing

Riopretano+0.00on par
America SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 72Over: 2872%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 64Yes: 3664%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riopretano ↓

America SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Riopretano or draw
60%
Riopretano or America SP
68%
Draw or America SP
73%

Winning margin

Riopretano wins by 2+
9%
America SP wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Riopretano 1+ goals
55%
Riopretano 2+ goals
19%
Riopretano 3+ goals
5%
America SP 1+ goals
65%
America SP 2+ goals
28%
America SP 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Riopretano (draw refunded)
40%
America SP (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riopretano at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

America SP away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riopretano attack 0.60 + America SP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

America SP attack 1.29 + Riopretano defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Riopretano scores more
27%
level
32%
America SP scores more
40%

America SP at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "America SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Riopretano vs America SP

Riopretano and America SP drew 0-0 in Paulista Série B on April 26, 2026.