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Rio Preto W vs Portuguesa W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Rio Preto W
Rio Preto W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portuguesa W
Portuguesa W
8/22/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rio Preto W83%
×Draw12%
Portuguesa W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Preto W
2.65
Portuguesa W
0.50

Rio Preto W creates 430% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rio Preto W
2.00
Portuguesa W
0.43

allows per match

Rio Preto W
0.57
Portuguesa W
3.29

finishing

Rio Preto W+0.00on par
Portuguesa W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Preto W ↓

Portuguesa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rio Preto W or draw
95%
Rio Preto W or Portuguesa W
88%
Draw or Portuguesa W
17%

Winning margin

Rio Preto W wins by 2+
62%
Portuguesa W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Rio Preto W 1+ goals
93%
Rio Preto W 2+ goals
74%
Rio Preto W 3+ goals
48%
Portuguesa W 1+ goals
39%
Portuguesa W 2+ goals
9%
Portuguesa W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Rio Preto W (draw refunded)
94%
Portuguesa W (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Preto W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Portuguesa W away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Preto W attack 2.00 + Portuguesa W defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.65

Portuguesa W attack 0.43 + Rio Preto W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Rio Preto W scores more
83%
level
12%
Portuguesa W scores more
5%

Rio Preto W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Rio Preto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Preto W vs Portuguesa W

Rio Preto W beat Portuguesa W 3-0 in Brasileiro Women on August 22, 2018.