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Rio Preto W vs Foz Cataratas W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Rio Preto W
Rio Preto W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Foz Cataratas W
Foz Cataratas W
5/23/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rio Preto W58%
×Draw24%
Foz Cataratas W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Preto W
1.65
Foz Cataratas W
0.78

Rio Preto W creates 112% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rio Preto W
2.00
Foz Cataratas W
1.00

allows per match

Rio Preto W
0.57
Foz Cataratas W
1.29

finishing

Rio Preto W+0.00on par
Foz Cataratas W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Preto W ↓

Foz Cataratas W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rio Preto W or draw
82%
Rio Preto W or Foz Cataratas W
76%
Draw or Foz Cataratas W
42%

Winning margin

Rio Preto W wins by 2+
32%
Foz Cataratas W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rio Preto W 1+ goals
81%
Rio Preto W 2+ goals
49%
Rio Preto W 3+ goals
23%
Foz Cataratas W 1+ goals
54%
Foz Cataratas W 2+ goals
18%
Foz Cataratas W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rio Preto W (draw refunded)
77%
Foz Cataratas W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Preto W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Foz Cataratas W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Preto W attack 2.00 + Foz Cataratas W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Foz Cataratas W attack 1.00 + Rio Preto W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rio Preto W scores more
58%
level
24%
Foz Cataratas W scores more
18%

Rio Preto W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rio Preto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Rio Preto W 1–0 Foz Cataratas W

Rio Preto W beat Foz Cataratas W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 23, 2018.