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Rio Preto U20 vs Tanabi SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Rio Preto U20
Rio Preto U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Tanabi SP U20
Tanabi SP U20
J. Junior 35'
A. Ribeiro 71'
Caua 40'
F. Mariano 3'
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Anísio Hadad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rio Preto U2025%
×Draw21%
Tanabi SP U2054%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Preto U20
1.34
Tanabi SP U20
2.08

Tanabi SP U20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Rio Preto U20
0.80
Tanabi SP U20
1.56

allows per match

Rio Preto U20
2.60
Tanabi SP U20
1.88

finishing

Rio Preto U20+0.00on par
Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Preto U20 ↓

Tanabi SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Rio Preto U20 or draw
46%
Rio Preto U20 or Tanabi SP U20
79%
Draw or Tanabi SP U20
75%

Winning margin

Rio Preto U20 wins by 2+
10%
Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Rio Preto U20 1+ goals
74%
Rio Preto U20 2+ goals
39%
Rio Preto U20 3+ goals
15%
Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals
87%
Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals
61%
Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Rio Preto U20 (draw refunded)
31%
Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Preto U20 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Tanabi SP U20 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Preto U20 attack 0.80 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tanabi SP U20 attack 1.56 + Rio Preto U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rio Preto U20 scores more
25%
level
21%
Tanabi SP U20 scores more
54%

Tanabi SP U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tanabi SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
F. Mariano
35'
J. Junior
40'
Caua
71'
A. Ribeiro
84'
P. Veloso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Rio Preto U20 1–3 Tanabi SP U20

Tanabi SP U20 beat Rio Preto U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

Goals: F. Mariano (3'), J. Junior (35'), Caua (40'), A. Ribeiro (71').

The match was played at Estádio Anísio Hadad in São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo.