Rio Preto U20 1–0 Olimpia U20: Result & Stats

Rio Preto U20

FT

1 – 0

Olimpia U20

4/12/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Anísio Hadad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rio Preto U2031%

×Draw25%

Olimpia U2044%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Preto U20Expected goals in this matchOlimpia U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.60

Rio Preto U20

1.30

Olimpia U20

1.60

Olimpia U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.80

creates per match

0.60

2.60

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Rio Preto U20

0.80

Olimpia U20

0.60

allows per match

Rio Preto U20

2.60

Olimpia U20

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Preto U20+0.00on par

Olimpia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Preto U20 ↓

Olimpia U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rio Preto U20 or draw

56%

Rio Preto U20 or Olimpia U20

75%

Draw or Olimpia U20

69%

Winning margin

Rio Preto U20 wins by 2+

13%

Olimpia U20 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Rio Preto U20 1+ goals

73%

Rio Preto U20 2+ goals

37%

Rio Preto U20 3+ goals

14%

Olimpia U20 1+ goals

80%

Olimpia U20 2+ goals

47%

Olimpia U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Rio Preto U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Olimpia U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Preto U20 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Olimpia U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Preto U20 attack 0.80 + Olimpia U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.30

Olimpia U20 attack 0.60 + Rio Preto U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rio Preto U20 scores more

31%

level

25%

Olimpia U20 scores more

44%

Olimpia U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olimpia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff