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Rio Preto U20 vs Mirassol U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Rio Preto U20
Rio Preto U20
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
Alberto 75'
Kerlon 64'
Gui Siveira 30'
R. N. Gustavo 28'
Fabricio Lima 20'
F. Moises 18'
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Anísio Hadad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rio Preto U2019%
×Draw20%
Mirassol U2061%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Preto U20
1.18
Mirassol U20
2.25

Mirassol U20 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

Rio Preto U20
0.80
Mirassol U20
1.91

allows per match

Rio Preto U20
2.60
Mirassol U20
1.55

finishing

Rio Preto U20+0.00on par
Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Preto U20 ↓

Mirassol U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Rio Preto U20 or draw
39%
Rio Preto U20 or Mirassol U20
80%
Draw or Mirassol U20
81%

Winning margin

Rio Preto U20 wins by 2+
7%
Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Rio Preto U20 1+ goals
69%
Rio Preto U20 2+ goals
33%
Rio Preto U20 3+ goals
12%
Mirassol U20 1+ goals
89%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
65%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Rio Preto U20 (draw refunded)
24%
Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Preto U20 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Mirassol U20 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Preto U20 attack 0.80 + Mirassol U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mirassol U20 attack 1.91 + Rio Preto U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rio Preto U20 scores more
19%
level
20%
Mirassol U20 scores more
61%

Mirassol U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
F. Moises
20'
Fabricio Lima
28'
R. N. Gustavo
30'
Gui Siveira
64'
Kerlon
75'
Alberto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Preto U20 vs Mirassol U20

Mirassol U20 beat Rio Preto U20 6-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

Goals: F. Moises (18'), Fabricio Lima (20'), R. N. Gustavo (28'), Gui Siveira (30'), Kerlon (64'), Alberto (75').

The match was played at Estádio Anísio Hadad in São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo.