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Rio Preto U20 vs Fernandopolis U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Rio Preto U20
Rio Preto U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fernandopolis U20
Fernandopolis U20
R. Ferreira 84'
E. Franco 57'
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Anísio Hadad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rio Preto U2044%
×Draw25%
Fernandopolis U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Preto U20
1.60
Fernandopolis U20
1.30

Rio Preto U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Rio Preto U20
0.80
Fernandopolis U20
0.00

allows per match

Rio Preto U20
2.60
Fernandopolis U20
2.40

finishing

Rio Preto U20+0.00on par
Fernandopolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Preto U20 ↓

Fernandopolis U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rio Preto U20 or draw
69%
Rio Preto U20 or Fernandopolis U20
75%
Draw or Fernandopolis U20
56%

Winning margin

Rio Preto U20 wins by 2+
23%
Fernandopolis U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rio Preto U20 1+ goals
80%
Rio Preto U20 2+ goals
47%
Rio Preto U20 3+ goals
22%
Fernandopolis U20 1+ goals
73%
Fernandopolis U20 2+ goals
37%
Fernandopolis U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rio Preto U20 (draw refunded)
59%
Fernandopolis U20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Preto U20 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Fernandopolis U20 away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Preto U20 attack 0.80 + Fernandopolis U20 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Fernandopolis U20 attack 0.00 + Rio Preto U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rio Preto U20 scores more
44%
level
25%
Fernandopolis U20 scores more
31%

Rio Preto U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rio Preto U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
E. Franco
60'
C. Ferreira
60'
C. Ferreira
84'
R. Ferreira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Rio Preto U20 2–0 Fernandopolis U20

Rio Preto U20 beat Fernandopolis U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: E. Franco (57'), R. Ferreira (84').

The match was played at Estádio Anísio Hadad in São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo.