Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rio Grande Valley vs Tampa Bay Rowdies — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies
5/21/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 13H-E-B Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rio Grande Valley38%
×Draw27%
Tampa Bay Rowdies36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.31
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 135 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.33

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.19

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Tampa Bay Rowdies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
64%
Rio Grande Valley or Tampa Bay Rowdies
73%
Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies
62%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
17%
Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
73%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
38%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
14%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals
72%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals
36%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
51%
Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.33 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
38%
level
27%
Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more
36%

Rio Grande Valley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Rio Grande Valley 0–3 Tampa Bay Rowdies

Tampa Bay Rowdies beat Rio Grande Valley 3-0 in USL Championship on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at H-E-B Park in Edinburg, Texas.