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Rio Grande Valley vs Seattle Sounders II — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
9/23/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 51H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rio Grande Valley59%
×Draw22%
Seattle Sounders II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.94
Seattle Sounders II
1.02

Rio Grande Valley creates 90% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 18 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
Seattle Sounders II
0.83

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
Seattle Sounders II
2.44

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Seattle Sounders II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
81%
Rio Grande Valley or Seattle Sounders II
78%
Draw or Seattle Sounders II
41%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
35%
Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
86%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
58%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
30%
Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
64%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
27%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
75%
Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Seattle Sounders II away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Seattle Sounders II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.94

Seattle Sounders II attack 0.83 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
59%
level
22%
Seattle Sounders II scores more
19%

Rio Grande Valley at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Grande Valley vs Seattle Sounders II

Rio Grande Valley beat Seattle Sounders II 3-0 in USL Championship on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas).