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Rio Grande Valley vs Real Monarchs — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
6/13/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 10H-E-B Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Rio Grande Valley48%
×Draw25%
Real Monarchs27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.63
Real Monarchs
1.17

Rio Grande Valley creates 39% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 57 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
Real Monarchs
1.12

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
Real Monarchs
1.81

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Real Monarchs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
73%
Rio Grande Valley or Real Monarchs
75%
Draw or Real Monarchs
52%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
25%
Real Monarchs wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
80%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
48%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
22%
Real Monarchs 1+ goals
69%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
33%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
64%
Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.81 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Real Monarchs defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

Real Monarchs attack 1.12 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
48%
level
25%
Real Monarchs scores more
27%

Rio Grande Valley at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Grande Valley vs Real Monarchs

Rio Grande Valley beat Real Monarchs 1-0 in USL Championship on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at H-E-B Park in Edinburg, Texas.