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Rio Grande Valley vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
6/19/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 20H-E-B Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rio Grande Valley37%
×Draw27%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.27
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 133 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.32

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.11

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Pittsburgh Riverhounds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
63%
Rio Grande Valley or Pittsburgh Riverhounds
73%
Draw or Pittsburgh Riverhounds
63%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
16%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
72%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
36%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
14%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
72%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
36%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
50%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.32 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
37%
level
27%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
37%

Rio Grande Valley at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Rio Grande Valley 1–0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Rio Grande Valley beat Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 in USL Championship on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at H-E-B Park in Edinburg, Texas.