Rio Grande Valley vs New Mexico United — USL Championship 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 91+ matches
Rio Grande Valley42%
New Mexico United32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rio Grande Valley creates 17% more chances
Season form · 91 home / 125 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rio Grande Valley ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches
New Mexico United away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 125 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + New Mexico United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44
New Mexico United attack 1.24 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Rio Grande Valley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Rio Grande Valley host New Mexico United on Sunday, 11 September 2022 at 00:30. The match is part of the USL Championship 2018/2019 season.
USL Championship: Rio Grande Valley 3–1 New Mexico United
Rio Grande Valley beat New Mexico United 3-1 in USL Championship on September 11, 2022.
Goals: A. Moreno (8'), E. Ycaza (15'), C. Pinzón (22'), J. Fjeldberg (68').
The match was played at H-E-B Park in Edinburg, Texas.